Poker ICM
ICM: what your stack is really worth
Enter the remaining stacks and a payout structure and see each player's exact real-money tournament equity, not just their share of the chips in play. The exact Malmuth-Harville model, worked out in your browser, no estimate.
6 players · £10,000.00 prize pool · 3 places paid
| Player | Stack | Chip % | ICM % | ICM $ | vs chip % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | 9,000 | 28.8% | 25.8% | £2,576.32 | -3.1% |
| P2 | 7,000 | 22.4% | 21.8% | £2,175.29 | -0.7% |
| P3 | 5,500 | 17.6% | 18.1% | £1,813.29 | +0.5% |
| P4 | 4,200 | 13.5% | 14.5% | £1,450.15 | +1.0% |
| P5 | 3,100 | 9.9% | 11.1% | £1,108.70 | +1.2% |
| P6 | 2,400 | 7.7% | 8.8% | £876.25 | +1.1% |
The "vs chip %" column is the whole point of ICM. Chips have diminishing value in a tournament: doubling your stack never doubles your prize, because first place is capped. So the chip leader is usually worth a little less in real money than their chip share, and the short stacks a little more, since they still have a live shot at a min-cash. That gap is where "ICM pressure" comes from near the bubble.
Why aren't tournament chips worth cash?
The hand-vs-hand equity calculator and the Chen formula on this site both work from a simple assumption, every chip is worth a fixed amount, which is exactly true in a cash game. A tournament breaks that assumption completely. Once you're out, you're out, there's no cashing back in, and the prize pool is split unevenly across only the top finishers. That single fact, that busting is an all-or-nothing event with a lumpy payout structure sitting behind it, is the entire reason a specialised model is needed to work out what a stack is worth.
How does ICM work?
The Independent Chip Model, developed from the Malmuth-Harville horse-racing formula, calculates the probability of every player finishing in every position, first, second, third and so on, purely from the relative sizes of the stacks still in play. It then multiplies each of those probabilities by the prize attached to that finishing position and sums them up, giving each player a single real-money equity figure. The calculator above runs that exact recursive calculation directly in your browser rather than approximating it, the same core maths sits behind every commercial ICM tool used by serious tournament players.
Reading the "vs chip %" column
Why not just split the prize pool by chip percentage? Try a heads-up, winner-take-all example in the calculator above and ICM equity and chip percentage land on exactly the same number. That's a property of the model when there's only one prize. Add a second and third paid place and the two numbers pull apart, in the direction most people don't expect.
Look at the default example: six players, £10,000, paying 50/30/20. The chip leader holds 28.8% of the chips but only 25.8% of the money, about £300 less than a straight chip split. The shortest stack, with 7.7% of the chips, is worth 8.8% of the prize pool. Big stacks are worth less than their chips and small stacks more, because a chip leader can't win more than first prize however many chips they pile up, while a short stack still has a real shot at third.
What is ICM pressure?
ICM pressure is the extra caution medium and short stacks need near the money, because busting costs them more real equity than the chips at risk. Near a money bubble or a big pay jump, a medium stack calling off a large bet risks real dollars beyond what the chip count alone suggests, because busting doesn't just cost chips, it costs every remaining live shot at bigger prizes too. That's exactly why tight, cautious play increases around the bubble even among players who'd happily gamble the same chip amounts earlier in a tournament, and why the chip leader can profitably shove or re-raise into that caution, they're the one player for whom busting is comparatively cheap. How far your own play bends to this is your call, but the numbers above are the place to start.
None of this touches the cards themselves, ICM only cares about stack sizes and the payout structure. For working out actual hand strength once you're deciding whether a specific shove or call makes sense, the poker odds calculator and solver page pick up where this tool leaves off.
When to run the numbers
ICM changes decisions most near the money and at final tables, so that is where to apply it.
Sources and further reading
FAQ
ICM FAQ
What does ICM stand for in poker?+
Independent Chip Model. It's the standard method for converting tournament chip stacks into real money equity, using each player's stack size and the prize pool's payout structure, rather than assuming chips are worth a simple proportional cash value.
Why isn't a chip worth the same as cash in a tournament?+
Because busting out means losing everything at once, there's no way to cash out chips gradually the way you can in a cash game. Because prizes are capped and spread across several places, each extra chip is worth slightly less than the last. That's why big stacks are worth less than their chip share and short stacks more, which is exactly what ICM calculates and a simple chip-count percentage does not.
What's ICM pressure?+
The tendency for medium and short stacks to play tighter near the money bubble or a pay jump than raw pot odds alone would suggest, because busting costs disproportionately more in real equity than the chips at risk. Chip leaders feel the opposite effect and can profitably apply pressure by shoving or re-raising into that caution.
How is ICM different from the Chen formula or equity calculator on this site?+
The Chen formula and hand-vs-hand equity calculator answer "how strong is this hand", a cash-game question where every chip is worth the same fixed amount. ICM answers a different question entirely, "what is my current stack worth in real money", which only matters in tournaments where finishing position and payout jumps change a chip's value.
Can AI calculate ICM perfectly?+
ICM itself isn't really an AI problem, it's an exact mathematical model (the Malmuth-Harville formula) that any computer, including the one running this calculator, solves precisely rather than estimates. Where AI helps is in solver software that goes further and recommends specific push/fold or betting ranges built on top of ICM equity, a different and more complex layer.
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