Blackjack insurance, 2026
Insurance sounds safe. The maths says otherwise, usually
Enter your current true count and see exactly whether insurance is worth taking right now, and why the honest answer is almost always no.
Not counting cards? Leave this at 0, in a freshly shuffled shoe with no other information, insurance is always -EV, no exceptions.
Decline insurance
At a true count of 0, roughly 4 in 13 remaining cards are tens, below the ~1 in 3 needed to break even.
Let's start with the honest answer
For almost everyone, almost every time: no, don't take insurance. It's offered whenever the dealer's up card is an ace, and it's a side bet that the dealer has blackjack, paying 2 to 1 on half your original stake if they do. That sounds like protection, but run the actual maths: in a full, unseen shoe roughly 4 in 13 cards, about 30.8%, are tens, the only cards that make the dealer's blackjack true. Insurance needs that share to be at least 1 in 3, about 33.3%, just to break even. Since a normal shoe starts below that number, insurance is a losing bet on average even before the dealer flips anything.
The one real exception: a ten-rich shoe
Card counters flip this calculation. As the running or true count climbs, it specifically means more small cards have already come out relative to tens, so the tens remaining make up a larger share of what's left. Once that share crosses roughly a third, insurance flips from -EV to +EV, and skilled counters do take it at that point, treating it as a separate side bet triggered by the count rather than a hand-by-hand instinct. This is one of the few genuinely correct deviations from basic strategy that isn't about your own hand at all.
Why "even money" is the same trap, differently dressed
If you're dealt a blackjack yourself and the dealer shows an ace, you may be offered "even money", guaranteed 1 to 1 instead of the usual 3 to 2, before the dealer checks their hole card. This is mathematically identical to taking insurance on your own blackjack, and carries exactly the same -EV problem in a normal shoe. Declining and simply waiting to see if the dealer also has blackjack is the higher expected-value play in the same situations this calculator covers.
Insurance decisions are one of the few blackjack moments where the count, not the hand in front of you, drives the right call, everything else on a normal hand is covered by the Blackjack AI calculator and the full strategy chart.
FAQ
Blackjack Insurance Calculator, answered plainly
Should I ever take insurance in blackjack?+
Only when you have a reliable read on the count and it's roughly true count +3 or higher under Hi-Lo, meaning tens make up at least a third of the remaining shoe. Without that information, insurance is a losing bet on average.
What percentage of cards need to be tens for insurance to be worth it?+
Roughly a third, about 33.3%, of the remaining cards need to be tens for insurance to break even, since it pays 2 to 1 on half your stake if the dealer has blackjack.
Is even money the same as insurance?+
Yes, mathematically. Taking even money on your own blackjack against a dealer ace is identical to taking insurance, and carries the same house edge problem in a normal, unbiased shoe.
Why do dealers always offer insurance?+
Because on average it's profitable for the casino, most players who take it are betting based on instinct or superstition rather than an actual count, and the base rate of tens in a full shoe sits below the breakeven point.
Does insurance work the same in online blackjack?+
The maths is identical, but RNG-based online blackjack reshuffles a virtual deck after every hand, so there's no depleting shoe to count and no scenario where the odds shift in your favour. Live-dealer blackjack from a real shoe is where a genuine count-based insurance edge can occur.